Covered on the 3/11/2011 edition of Killer Poker Analysis. (segment 1: Double-barreling in no-limit hold'em)

QQ 3bet pot, barrel turn?

Hey Tony,
This hand totally confused me. Looking back now, I think a big turn bet would have been the best line here but could be way off (check out my turn analysis to see why). What do you think?

Villain 29/25 over 79 hands. His pfr positional stats are all over 20% for each position. I don’t know if he’s just catching cards preflop, or just does not care about position. I havent seen a showdown from him yet. He has folded to 3 out of 3 3bets so far once from button and twice from utg. His starting stack for the hand was only 74bbs which makes me think he could be fishy?

TURN: With his flop call I can put him on AT-Qs, 66-QQ, and maybe 33, but I cant think of any draws that he’s calling preflop with and I cant see AK here either. His turn check could be same range as flop, looking for a checkraise with sets. If I barrel ~80% of pot, I can fold out 77-QQ which is 36 combos and he’s calling or raising with 15 combos. So he’s folding 70% of his range to a big turn bet. If my ranges are pretty good, I only need him to fold 47% to be +ev.

His river bet looks like a value bet with Axs but could also be a mid pocket pair trying to get something weak to fold or just setting a river bet price that he‘s willing to call in stead of letting me set it. I have no idea what’s going on in this hand

10nl pokerstars
BB: $7.89
UTG: $10
MP: $7.48 CO: $10
Hero (BTN): $12.93 SB: $10.16

Preflop: Hero is BTN with QsQd fold, MP raises to $0.30,fold, Hero raises to $0.90, 2 folds, MP calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.95) 6c As 3h
MP checks, Hero bets $1, MP calls $1

Turn: ($3.95) 5cMP checks, Hero checks

River: ($3.95) 2dMP bets $2.19, Hero folds

hey ya know what, i just realized that my not so killer poker analysis was trying to fold out hands that i beat on the turn. I guess i'm happy with my line considering the lack of knowledge i have on villain. ironically i just listened to your podcast about playing tough poker until we get sufficient information. i need to start being more patient.

I'm going to talk about this hand in the context of turning hands into bluffs on the 3/25/2011 edition of Killer Poker Analysis.

Hi Tony.
Long time listener (3+years) first time 'contributor'. Love your show, thanks for helping us becoming better players and teaching us how to be better 'thinkers'.

My question is the following.

I recently started playing 10$ rebuy MTTs where you get 1 rebuy and 1 add-on (addon is for 3k in chips, starting stack is 2k).
On average 200 players, top 20 get paid but really it's all about finishing in the top 3-4 to make decent money.

30$ MTTs are definitely above my bankroll but the price pool is much more attractive than the 5$ rebuys or 10$ freezeouts. I like to play those 10$ rebuy MTT's but I never rebuy or add on (my current bankroll for MTTs is 1400$ and I don;t feel comfortable dishing out 20 or 30$ in an MTT. My bankroll could evaporate fast if you go through a long period of no cashes.

The thing about the add-on is that it can be done from the get go so some players start with 4k instead of the standard 2k.

The play is not crazy loose. People play 'normal'. You don't get people pushing light preflop with any pocket pairs or on the flop to repop your flop bet when the board is draw heavy (and they are not on this draw). The play is descent unlike cheaper MTTs or freerolls.

I usually find the people who have 4k not too abuse of their chip advantage and in the majority, most people will use the rebuy as such when they get busted.

My question to you is how much of a disadvantage it is to play such MTTs with the intention of not rebuying or adding on? Is it a big no no?

I myself manage to do well, at least to my liking (i'm a casual poker player, play for fun): won once, 3rd once, a few cashes out of 30 games
Not starting with 4k is not really a big deal because even though it sure is better to double up from 4k to 8k than from 2k to 4k, I don't see that happening a lot (big confrontation between big stacks) and usually when i take someone out and double up, The 4k would not have mattered since my opponent typically also has about 1.5 to 2.5k.
The problem is more with the addon which gives you an added 3k in chips for 10$.
Usually by that time, i'm in mid position or above with 5k but almost everyone adds on and i find myself dropping dramatically in the standings because of that. Basically i end up in the bottom 20% unless i did really well in the first hour.
Everyone having more money than me doesn't bother me and is not a problem but by the end of the break blinds are 75-150 going to 100-200 and you quickly find yourself nearing the 30BB or 20BB limit.

So given the situation I just described, would you say that by not rebuying there is too much of a gap between me and my opponents and that one should definitely take advantage of the addon or play lower stakes (5$ rebuys)?
Do you think that my results should improve a lot by adding-on/starting with 4k? the way I see it, this mere 3k is only delaying by a few orbits your transition from safe to take-risk modes of operation (I kinda go by Neil Meyers chip accumulation guidelines by the way. Learned about the book on your show).
When the blinds are 100-200, you can make those 3k's in no time. Sure I will have to take risk earlier than most people will but with still decent fold equity with my stack of more than 20BB and a chip accumulation mindset, I can make that money back in no time. If i don't, I just figure that it's not my night anyway and 3k would not change much.

I did my own research reading posts on various forums and 99% of the time people will say it makes no sense to play rebuy MTT with the intention of not rebuying. That it is too much of a disadvantage. But there's just more money on those. getting $1400 when you only invested 10$ is good imo. even a cash, which is 40$, is still 4 MTT buy-ins and cashing in the top10% ain't that hard.

Anyhow i'd love to hear your thoughts on that issue and anyone's opinion is welcome of course.

keep up the great job.

thanks.

-yannick

Covered on the 4/8/2011 edition of Killer Poker Analysis